Early warnings

Risk signals before there is a scandal: single-bidder tenders, addenda that multiply the price, appointments of close associates, contracts signed in the final days of a government. We document the indication with the official record, the date and the entity’s response. A warning is not an accusation: it is a fact that deserves follow-up.

Keiko Fujimori: An Early Warning from a President with 18 Investigations on Hold—Which Will Be Reopened in 2031 and Which May Be Subject to the Statute of Limitations Before Then

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Keiko Fujimori has been president of Peru since July 28, 2026. At the same time, she is the person with the most criminal investigations in this series: 69 in total, 51 of which have been closed and 18 are ongoing. None of these cases can proceed against her while she is in office. Article 117 … Read more about Keiko Fujimori: An Early Warning from a President with 18 Investigations on Hold—Which Will Be Reopened in 2031 and Which May Be Subject to the Statute of Limitations Before Then

Carlos Pólit: Early Warning Signs of a Release from Prison—What If Miami Lets Him Go, and Why Ecuador Would Still Not Receive Payment

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Carlos Pólit has been in prison in Florida for ten years. The reason: laundering bribes from Odebrecht that he received while serving as Ecuador’s comptroller. On September 10, 2026, he requested—without a lawyer—to serve the remainder of his sentence under house arrest. He cites health reasons. That request is the reason for this early alert. … Read more about Carlos Pólit: Early Warning Signs of a Release from Prison—What If Miami Lets Him Go, and Why Ecuador Would Still Not Receive Payment

Roberto Arzú: The 2027 Early Warning—What Has Been Proven, What Remains Unproven, and What to Watch for Before Guatemala Votes

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Roberto Arzú García-Granados is the only figure in this series who has not yet been tried for any crime. At the same time, he could become his country’s president in 2027. He ranks third in the polls. That combination is the reason for this early warning. There is no conviction or indictment. However, there is … Read more about Roberto Arzú: The 2027 Early Warning—What Has Been Proven, What Remains Unproven, and What to Watch for Before Guatemala Votes

José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero: The Early Warning Signs of the Plus Ultra Case, the Three Dates That Could Change It, and the Evidence That Does Not Yet Exist

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José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero is the first former prime minister of Spain to be charged by the National Court. That happened in May 2026. Five months later, the case remains under investigation: there is no trial, no formal indictment, and no verdict. That is why it has been included in Early Alerts. This article does … Read more about José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero: The Early Warning Signs of the Plus Ultra Case, the Three Dates That Could Change It, and the Evidence That Does Not Yet Exist